Wednesday, August 7

Government and the Tech Industry

The Department of Justice announced that it is launching a formal review of certain "market-leading online platforms" to see assess the impact of these companies to competition, innovation and consumers. Read the full press release here.

Digital first companies such as the hyperscalers are shaping our choices, preferences, behavior and what we see without accountability. Across the value chain of the large tech companies, our role as consumer is considered to be an adjacent opportunity when compared to our role as an implicit provider. In other words, we are primarily a product, secondarily a consumer.

In a traditional free market, we as the customer can make choices that are in part based on a competitive environment with companies looking to differentiate themselves to earn our business. That’s not to say marketing, advertising, etc. in the non-digital age didn’t attempt to shape us, but I would argue that the impact and risk to free markets has been amplified in the digital world.

The viral nature of digital first companies suggests that there’s gravity associated with the success of these companies. For some, like Google and Facebook, the gravity was serendipitous with their business strategy opportunistic. While others, such as Amazon have explicitly developed their composite business strategy to create gravity.

But we need to take a step back to look at the macro view. We are in the midst of an economic and sociological genesis, a time that arguably has little parallels to other periods of transformations. Its breadth is wider, velocity is faster and ability to obliterate the conventional, shocking.

Foundational advancements in technology have served as a catalyst for this transformation which is fueling innovative thinking around how value is created and delivered to customers. Many of the artificially created barriers removed, providing the potential for more equal opportunities to a broader and more diverse population. At the same time, new challenges are present, creating new and different barriers.

We are in a very fluid time and not likely to change soon. Navigating through this period is difficult at best and needs a rationale, well thought out strategy. The common reaction to a disruptive period would be to assess winners and losers and use this as a political tool to create FUD.

The role of the government for appropriate oversight and regulation is critical to the long term success. But that role must be done with a line of sight to a longer term vision. The path to the long term vision will require governance and fine tuning along the way with the goal of staying on the journey with as much incremental benefits to all as possible.

The role of the government is not to impede this organic evolution, but to provide the guardrails along the path.

Tuesday, August 21

Cryptocurrencies: Rising, Falling or Already Passé?

The future of hashtag#cryptocurrencies hasn't been written yet. Yes, current instantiations are driven by synthetic demand with minimal correlation to broader macroeconomic forces, creating high volatility and unpredictability. However over time we will see a stabilization of the coefficient of variation with hashtag#cryptocurrencies as they are absorbed into the greater macroeconomic ecosystem.  The end result will be that by 2030 some form of hashtag#cryptocurrency will become pervasive to the point of becoming the global reserve currency but it will not be based on what exists today.  Existing hashtag#cryptocurrencies will need to substantially transform their models and algorithms or they will disappear.  Around 2030 or so, the first Nobel Prize in Economics will be awarded to a Cryptoeconomist.

Saturday, March 31

Genesis Redux - Life in an age of Uncertainty

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings
 
For most of us, our life’s journey has been wrought with uncertainty these past few years and Tolkien’s quote seems so appropriate in these challenging times. We are in the midst of an economic and sociological genesis, a time that arguably has little parallels to other periods of transformations. Its breadth is wider, velocity is faster and ability to obliterate the conventional, shocking.
 
Seems like every year brings challenges beyond what we have seen in the past few years. Governments and Corporations will need to accept the reality that social media may have a pedigree based on connecting between friends, but it has evolved to be a force in the democratization of every aspect of life. Those who oppose this force will risk obsolescence.
 
Yet I find the light of inspiration always shines brightest when the darkness of adversity is at its worst.
 
Along with the challenges, disruption will bring about significant opportunities to evolve the world we live in. The world is looking for leaders who can harness the power of viral democracy and collaborate to help create a new world, one that is based on peace and equality. Leaders that support the balance of meritocracy while offering opportunity to all. Leaders who can inspire.
 
We all have a part to play in this genesis. The success or failure of the genesis can only occur through an organic growth of small incremental change. Each day we have opportunities to make that change, make that small step towards achieving the most significant transformation our world has ever seen.
All we need to decide is if we should step onto that road keep our feet, yet not fully knowing where we might be swept off to. One thing is certain; progress is not made without embracing the risk of change.